I've never posted anything on this thread before, but I think I found something that (if I'm correct) the OoT community may or may not be interested in.
The past week or so I've been testing bomb drop rates under a given variable and have taken a bunch of data. One of them is really interesting I think, and might be important.
The variable I tested was how full your bomb bag is while you cut grass. Here's what I found:
Zero bombs in bag at every cut
Bushes cut: 2400
Total bomb drops: 318
Drop percentage per bush: 13.25%
Notice that this is pretty much exactly twice as much as Runnerguy's calculation. This is mainly why my interest was peaked, so I tried it with one drop in the bomb bag:
5 bombs in bag at every cut
Bushes cut: 1200
Total bomb drops: 162
Drop percentage per bush: 13.5%
Still twice as much. Maybe my cartridge is haunted? So I tried it with a full bomb bag:
Full bag of bombs at every cut
Bushes cut: 1200
Total bomb drops: 81
Drop percentage per bush: 6.75%
So now I'm pretty much exactly at what Runnerguy predicted, which made sense to me. But it's strange that fewer bombs gave more drops, so I tested with two drops in the bomb bag:
10 bombs in bag at every cut
Bushes cut: 1200
Total bomb drops: 80
Drop percentage per bush: 6.66%
I thought this was interesting since it was pretty much exactly what a full bag would expect percentage wise, and from there I experimented a bit until I found a statistic I think is very interesting:
6 bombs in bag at every cut
Bushes cut: 1200
Total bomb drops: 82
Drop percentage per bush: 6.83%
This seems to suggest that the average percentage chance that you'll get a drop from a bush is 6.75% until you reach 5 bombs left in your bag, at which point it doubles
Here are the important results:
Total average percentage drops per bush with 6 or more bombs in the bag: 6.75% (on the nose)
Total average percentage drops per bush with 5 or fewer bombs in the bag: 13.33%
Logically this suggests to me that the programmers set the chance per bush to 13.5% (being .17% generous to match what appears to be the trend) while you have 5 or fewer bombs, and had that value cut in half to 6.75% when you have 6 or more bombs. Might this be useful?
Supposing I'm right, if you're approaching a patch of 12 bushes with 6 bombs in your bomb bag and simply cut them, you will end up with an average of 9.75 bombs as a result. However, if you drop one bomb before cutting the grass, you will end up with an average of 13.1 bombs. Obviously, this scenario can be extrapolated to more complicated situations where the effect is magnified even greater (Lake Hylia in MST, for example), but this post is getting pretty long, and I don't even know if anyone will be interested in this anyway.
Important things to note about the data:
-The sample size for both averages is equal, and the total is 7200 bushes. Runnerguy probably did more than this, but my results were dramatic enough and consistent enough that I thought this was worth posting. Unless someone is interested in seeing if my results can be replicated, this whole post can be taken with a grain of salt.
-All of the testing was done on a 100% file. This means that each type of drop was available to come out of each bush, but my results still happened. I don't know if the fact that I had the biggest bomb bag changes anything. Also, all things in my inventory including arrows, rupees, hearts and magic were full.
-All of the testing was done at the graveyard with the main set of 12 bushes.
-Almost all cuts to bushes were done with "diagonal slices", by holding Z and pressing right before slashing. I also used crouch stabs and the occasional accidental quick spin.
-I didn't pick up bomb drops when they came out, I made sure to keep that 100% consistent.
-If you notice an error in my math let me know. I'm pretty sure it's right, but I've messed that stuff up before.
Anyway, I just didn't want to do all that running back and forth to get (what I think is) an interesting result just to not say anything. Hopefully someone reads this!
-Pewd
Last edited 15 Feb 2012, 03:45 by poodleskirt.
